Friday, 22 September, 2017

Oil rises above $52

North Korea missile launch North Korea missile launch
Bessie Robbins | 16 May, 2017, 07:01

Analysts including Goldman Sachs have said the global oil market is re-balancing, and the International Energy Agency predicts demand will significantly exceed production if OPEC and its partners extend their cuts into the second half of the year.

Futures were little changed in NY after adding 3.5% last week. "With these two countries behind the extension of the accord, chances are very high that they will get all of OPEC behind it".

Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation announced plans to cut their amounts of oil going onto the market. The following month, 11 non-OPEC oil-producing countries pledged to cut another 558,000 barrels a day, bringing the overall reduction to 1.8 million barrels a day. US crude was up $1.43 at $49.27 a barrel.

Chinese retail sales for April beat expectations to rise 10.7 percent from a year ago, while property investment growth accelerated to 9.3 percent in the first four months of 2017 from 9.1 percent in the first quarter.

Brent crude futures were at $52.05 per barrel at 0129 GMT, up 23 cents, or 0.44 percent, from their last close. The global benchmark crude traded at a premium of $2.65 to July WTI.

But with US oil output rising and the first phase of the OPEC/non-OPEC agreement proving a disappointment there may be greater caution this time.

Fund managers now hold 809 million barrels of Brent and WTI long positions compared with 800 million in November.

"The drop in net-length set the stage for the rally", Tamar Essner, a New York-based energy analyst at Nasdaq Inc., said by telephone.

Extending the curbs at already agreed-upon volumes is needed to reach the goal of reducing global inventories to the five-year average, the energy ministers of the world's biggest oil producers said in a joint press conference in Beijing.

"Preliminary consultations show that everybody is committed" to the output agreement and no country is willing to quit, said Novak. "I don't see reasons for any country to quit".

Not everyone is on board yet.

Undermining efforts by OPEC and Russian Federation has been the United States, which did not participate in the agreement to cut supplies.

The U.S. operators are expected to relatively quickly adjust even to $30 per barrel oil, and they will rely on hedging gains or just outspend more in the short term.

Hedge funds now hold a very similar position to the one they held on November 29 before the OPEC deal was announced which raises the question of whether the outcome will be the same.

Over in the U.S., equities rose more than 0.4 percent across the board, with energy stocks contributing to the gains. That is longer than the optional six-month extension specified in the deal.

"We are of the camp that the extension cuts might not be enough - they might need to extend the cuts and to increase them to stabilize this market", said Oliver Sloup, director of managed futures at iitrader.com.

Instead of US crude oil inventories declining in the first quarter, they increased.

Traders are eagerly waiting on news from the May 25th OPEC meeting.

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