Saturday, 22 July, 2017

Oil subdued as rising U.S. output undermines Opec effort to cut supply

The Dakota Access Pipeline began flowing this week through the thousand-mile route from North Dakota to Illinois The Dakota Access Pipeline began flowing this week through the thousand-mile route from North Dakota to Illinois
Preston Stone | 09 June, 2017, 08:55

Benchmark Brent crude futures LCOc1 were trading at $49.67 a barrel at 0849 GMT, down 96 cents from the previous close.

Blame a combination of the weakish jobs report (138,000 new jobs created, around 45,000 less than expected and 85,000 jobs sliced off the estimates for March and April), rising USA production and President Trump's withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord on top of fears of a persistent oversupply of oil.

"This could lead to a drilling free-for-all in the US and also see other signatories waver in their commitments", said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst, OANDA. "We see risks for a renewed surplus later next year if OPEC and Russia's production rises to their expanded capacity and shale grows at an unbridled rate".

According to a QNB report, oil prices growth during 2017-2019 "will uplift government income, ease financial constraints pressures, and support investment spending programme".

"Why wouldn't they ramp up production when producers like the US have an open invite to do as they please?" he said.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other nations led by Russian Federation agreed last week to extend a deal to limit global oil output for a further nine months, until March 2018.

"As long as USA crude stocks draw more because of high exports than low imports from OPEC, it will be hard to have a strong price recovery".

Sechin, a close ally of President Vladimir Putin, expects shale oil output to increase by about 1.5 million barrels a day in 2018, close to the entire cut targeted by OPEC and its allies.

OPEC started the output cuts on January 1 in an attempt to ease bloated global inventories and boost oil prices.

OPEC, in addition, discussed reducing output by a further 1 to 1.5 percent, and could revisit the proposal should inventories remain high.

Still, oil markets received some support from official United States of America data that showed the country's crude inventories fell sharply last week as refining and exports surged to record highs. Last week, crude came under pressure despite a sizeable decline of 6.43 million barrels reported in USA crude stocks for the week ended May 26, in addition to a draw of 2.86 million barrels in gasoline inventories.

Last week, oil futures settled at the lowest level in more than three weeks on Friday, with prices suffering their largest weekly loss in a month amid growing concern over rising shale production in the U.S. The African producer now cranks out around 830,000 barrels a day, a huge jump compared with the sub-300,000 barrels a day seen in last July.

"The market is testing OPEC for firmer action", said Olivier Jakob, managing director at consultant Petromatrix GmbH in Zug, Switzerland.

The post Trump drags oil prices below $50 appeared first on Vanguard News.

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